Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use

China’s growth plans include a carbon emission peak policy, which is a restriction that indirectly impacts land use structure. In this study, we simulate different paths for achieving policy objectives, and explore the linkages between those paths and land use change. The IPAT model was used to simu...

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Main Authors: Han Wang, Yujie Jin, Xingming Hong, Fuan Tian, Jianxian Wu, Xin Nie
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2022-04-01
Series:Land
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/4/573
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author Han Wang
Yujie Jin
Xingming Hong
Fuan Tian
Jianxian Wu
Xin Nie
author_facet Han Wang
Yujie Jin
Xingming Hong
Fuan Tian
Jianxian Wu
Xin Nie
author_sort Han Wang
collection DOAJ
description China’s growth plans include a carbon emission peak policy, which is a restriction that indirectly impacts land use structure. In this study, we simulate different paths for achieving policy objectives, and explore the linkages between those paths and land use change. The IPAT model was used to simulate the carbon emissions generated from a natural development scenario, an ideal policy scenario, and a retributive carbon emission scenario in China from 2020 to 2030. The simulation results were incorporated into the CLUMondo model as a demand driver to simulate the land use change in 2030. The results show that carbon emission peak policy can somewhat reduce carbon emissions and increase building land in a regulated way. However, the policy may also lead to a short-term surge in carbon emissions, a reactive expansion of arable land and building land. This may reduce losses in economic development when carbon emissions are limited, but does not achieve the integration of social, economic, and ecological goals. This study links the carbon emission peak policy with land use change and provides a fresh perspective on the Chinese government’s carbon reduction policy.
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spelling doaj.art-081feaf10ff844cebfd28512fa638bb62023-12-03T13:36:24ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2022-04-0111457310.3390/land11040573Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land UseHan Wang0Yujie Jin1Xingming Hong2Fuan Tian3Jianxian Wu4Xin Nie5School of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaSchool of Mechanical Engineering, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaSchool of Public Administration, Guangxi University, No. 100, Da Xue Road, Nanning 530004, ChinaChina’s growth plans include a carbon emission peak policy, which is a restriction that indirectly impacts land use structure. In this study, we simulate different paths for achieving policy objectives, and explore the linkages between those paths and land use change. The IPAT model was used to simulate the carbon emissions generated from a natural development scenario, an ideal policy scenario, and a retributive carbon emission scenario in China from 2020 to 2030. The simulation results were incorporated into the CLUMondo model as a demand driver to simulate the land use change in 2030. The results show that carbon emission peak policy can somewhat reduce carbon emissions and increase building land in a regulated way. However, the policy may also lead to a short-term surge in carbon emissions, a reactive expansion of arable land and building land. This may reduce losses in economic development when carbon emissions are limited, but does not achieve the integration of social, economic, and ecological goals. This study links the carbon emission peak policy with land use change and provides a fresh perspective on the Chinese government’s carbon reduction policy.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/4/573carbon emissionsland use changescenario analysisenvironmental pressure modelland use model
spellingShingle Han Wang
Yujie Jin
Xingming Hong
Fuan Tian
Jianxian Wu
Xin Nie
Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
Land
carbon emissions
land use change
scenario analysis
environmental pressure model
land use model
title Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
title_full Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
title_fullStr Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
title_full_unstemmed Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
title_short Integrating IPAT and CLUMondo Models to Assess the Impact of Carbon Peak on Land Use
title_sort integrating ipat and clumondo models to assess the impact of carbon peak on land use
topic carbon emissions
land use change
scenario analysis
environmental pressure model
land use model
url https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/4/573
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AT fuantian integratingipatandclumondomodelstoassesstheimpactofcarbonpeakonlanduse
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