Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture
Meeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food ar...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388 |
| _version_ | 1797747436624543744 |
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| author | Areidy Beltran-Peña Lorenzo Rosa Paolo D’Odorico |
| author_facet | Areidy Beltran-Peña Lorenzo Rosa Paolo D’Odorico |
| author_sort | Areidy Beltran-Peña |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Meeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food are expected to intensify. Moreover, past studies do not account for the water sustainability limits of irrigation expansion to presently rainfed areas. Here we perform an integrated assessment that considers a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. We evaluate the self-sufficiency of 165 countries under sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and business-as-usual scenarios considering changes in diet, population, agricultural intensification, and climate. We find that under both the middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual trajectories global food self-sufficiency is likely to decline despite increased food production through sustainable agricultural intensification since projected food demand exceeds potential production. Contrarily, under a sustainability scenario, we estimate that there will be enough food production to feed the global population. However, most countries in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be heavily reliant on imports throughout the 21st century under all scenarios. These results highlight future hotspots of crop production deficits, reliance on food imports, and vulnerability to food supply shocks. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-13ef24f5b3e8428284d6e4c9fa800831 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:51:30Z |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-13ef24f5b3e8428284d6e4c9fa8008312023-08-09T15:07:51ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262020-01-0115909500410.1088/1748-9326/ab9388Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agricultureAreidy Beltran-Peña0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9448-1156Lorenzo Rosa1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1280-9945Paolo D’Odorico2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0007-5833Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720, United States of AmericaDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California , Berkeley, CA 94720, United States of AmericaMeeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food are expected to intensify. Moreover, past studies do not account for the water sustainability limits of irrigation expansion to presently rainfed areas. Here we perform an integrated assessment that considers a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. We evaluate the self-sufficiency of 165 countries under sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and business-as-usual scenarios considering changes in diet, population, agricultural intensification, and climate. We find that under both the middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual trajectories global food self-sufficiency is likely to decline despite increased food production through sustainable agricultural intensification since projected food demand exceeds potential production. Contrarily, under a sustainability scenario, we estimate that there will be enough food production to feed the global population. However, most countries in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be heavily reliant on imports throughout the 21st century under all scenarios. These results highlight future hotspots of crop production deficits, reliance on food imports, and vulnerability to food supply shocks.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388climate changefood securityglobal environmental changehydrologysustainabilityyield gaps |
| spellingShingle | Areidy Beltran-Peña Lorenzo Rosa Paolo D’Odorico Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture Environmental Research Letters climate change food security global environmental change hydrology sustainability yield gaps |
| title | Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_full | Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_fullStr | Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_short | Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| title_sort | global food self sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture |
| topic | climate change food security global environmental change hydrology sustainability yield gaps |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388 |
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