Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25374 |