Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error
The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública |
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| Online Access: | https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25374 |
| _version_ | 1818249143524524032 |
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| author | Kenneth Bunker |
| author_facet | Kenneth Bunker |
| author_sort | Kenneth Bunker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error (how the forecast deviates from perfect accuracy/precision). The article finds that while the TSM does appear to be a stable estimator, its accuracy and precision is affected under certain conditions. Using the difference in the results for each of the two questions, the article discusses how sharp and unexpected shifts in electoral preferences can affect forecasts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:31:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-1c28ce3561c94ebeb5dac383772930c3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1852-9003 2660-700X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:31:48Z |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Ediciones Universidad de Salamanca |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública |
| spelling | doaj.art-1c28ce3561c94ebeb5dac383772930c32022-12-22T00:20:06ZengEdiciones Universidad de SalamancaRevista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública1852-90032660-700X2022-06-0111110.14201/rlop.2537422519Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and errorKenneth Bunker0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4579-6132Universidad Diego PortalesThe purpose of this article is to explore electoral forecasting in two-horse races in new democracies. Specifically, it applies a Bayesian dynamic linear model (coined the Two-Stage Model, TSM) to look at the 2020 Chilean two-question national plebiscite. The ultimate objective is to test the TSM in terms of accuracy (how close the forecast is to the election results), precision (how close the forecast is to other methods of prediction) and error (how the forecast deviates from perfect accuracy/precision). The article finds that while the TSM does appear to be a stable estimator, its accuracy and precision is affected under certain conditions. Using the difference in the results for each of the two questions, the article discusses how sharp and unexpected shifts in electoral preferences can affect forecasts.https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25374bayesian inference; election campaigns; new democracies; public opinion; plebiscites |
| spellingShingle | Kenneth Bunker Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Pública bayesian inference; election campaigns; new democracies; public opinion; plebiscites |
| title | Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error |
| title_full | Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error |
| title_short | Forecasting two-horse races in new democracies: Accuracy, precision and error |
| title_sort | forecasting two horse races in new democracies accuracy precision and error |
| topic | bayesian inference; election campaigns; new democracies; public opinion; plebiscites |
| url | https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/1852-9003/article/view/25374 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT kennethbunker forecastingtwohorseracesinnewdemocraciesaccuracyprecisionanderror |