Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model

Forecasting Social Conflicts in Africa Using an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence Model

We propose to view social conflicts in Africa as having similarities with earthquake occurrences and hence to consider the spatial-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. The parameters of this highly parameterized model are estimated through simulated annealing. We consider data fo...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Gilian van den Hengel, Philip Hans Franses
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2020-08-01
Series:Forecasting
Subjects:
ETAS model
social conflicts
Africa
forecasting
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/2/3/16

Internet

https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/2/3/16

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