Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR

<p>Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields prescribed by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). S...

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Main Authors: C. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Agosta, A. Delhasse, S. Doutreloup, P.-V. Huot, C. Wyard, T. Fichefet, X. Fettweis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2018-12-01
Series:The Cryosphere
Online Access:https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3827/2018/tc-12-3827-2018.pdf
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author C. Kittel
C. Amory
C. Agosta
C. Agosta
A. Delhasse
S. Doutreloup
P.-V. Huot
C. Wyard
T. Fichefet
X. Fettweis
author_facet C. Kittel
C. Amory
C. Agosta
C. Agosta
A. Delhasse
S. Doutreloup
P.-V. Huot
C. Wyard
T. Fichefet
X. Fettweis
author_sort C. Kittel
collection DOAJ
description <p>Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields prescribed by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). Since the recent variability of sea surface conditions (SSCs, namely sea ice concentration, SIC, and sea surface temperature, SST) over the Southern Ocean is not reproduced by most GCMs from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), RCMs are then subject to potential biases. We investigate here the direct sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to SSC perturbations around the Antarctic. With the RCM “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR), different sensitivity experiments are performed over 1979–2015 by modifying the ERA-Interim SSCs with (i) homogeneous perturbations and (ii) mean anomalies estimated from all CMIP5 models and two extreme ones, while atmospheric lateral boundary conditions remained unchanged. Results show increased (decreased) precipitation due to perturbations inducing warmer, i.e. higher SST and lower SIC (colder, i.e. lower SST and higher SIC), SSCs than ERA-Interim, significantly affecting the SMB of coastal areas, as precipitation is mainly related to cyclones that do not penetrate far into the continent. At the continental scale, significant SMB anomalies (i.e greater than the interannual variability) are found for the largest combined SST/SIC perturbations. This is notably due to moisture anomalies above the ocean, reaching sufficiently high atmospheric levels to influence accumulation rates further inland. Sensitivity experiments with warmer SSCs based on the CMIP5 biases reveal integrated SMB anomalies (<span class="inline-formula">+5</span>&thinsp;% to <span class="inline-formula">+13</span>&thinsp;%) over the present climate (1979–2015) in the lower range of the SMB increase projected for the end of the 21st century.</p>
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spelling doaj.art-30ad4e77b27a44cfb4abf142b5b7d4632022-12-22T01:54:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242018-12-01123827383910.5194/tc-12-3827-2018Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MARC. Kittel0C. Amory1C. Agosta2C. Agosta3A. Delhasse4S. Doutreloup5P.-V. Huot6C. Wyard7T. Fichefet8X. Fettweis9Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumEarth & Climate, Earth and Life Institute, Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, BelgiumLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, BelgiumEarth & Climate, Earth and Life Institute, Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, BelgiumLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium<p>Estimates for the recent period and projections of the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) often rely on high-resolution polar-oriented regional climate models (RCMs). However, RCMs require large-scale boundary forcing fields prescribed by reanalyses or general circulation models (GCMs). Since the recent variability of sea surface conditions (SSCs, namely sea ice concentration, SIC, and sea surface temperature, SST) over the Southern Ocean is not reproduced by most GCMs from the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), RCMs are then subject to potential biases. We investigate here the direct sensitivity of the Antarctic SMB to SSC perturbations around the Antarctic. With the RCM “Modèle Atmosphérique Régional” (MAR), different sensitivity experiments are performed over 1979–2015 by modifying the ERA-Interim SSCs with (i) homogeneous perturbations and (ii) mean anomalies estimated from all CMIP5 models and two extreme ones, while atmospheric lateral boundary conditions remained unchanged. Results show increased (decreased) precipitation due to perturbations inducing warmer, i.e. higher SST and lower SIC (colder, i.e. lower SST and higher SIC), SSCs than ERA-Interim, significantly affecting the SMB of coastal areas, as precipitation is mainly related to cyclones that do not penetrate far into the continent. At the continental scale, significant SMB anomalies (i.e greater than the interannual variability) are found for the largest combined SST/SIC perturbations. This is notably due to moisture anomalies above the ocean, reaching sufficiently high atmospheric levels to influence accumulation rates further inland. Sensitivity experiments with warmer SSCs based on the CMIP5 biases reveal integrated SMB anomalies (<span class="inline-formula">+5</span>&thinsp;% to <span class="inline-formula">+13</span>&thinsp;%) over the present climate (1979–2015) in the lower range of the SMB increase projected for the end of the 21st century.</p>https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3827/2018/tc-12-3827-2018.pdf
spellingShingle C. Kittel
C. Amory
C. Agosta
C. Agosta
A. Delhasse
S. Doutreloup
P.-V. Huot
C. Wyard
T. Fichefet
X. Fettweis
Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
The Cryosphere
title Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
title_full Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
title_fullStr Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
title_full_unstemmed Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
title_short Sensitivity of the current Antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using MAR
title_sort sensitivity of the current antarctic surface mass balance to sea surface conditions using mar
url https://www.the-cryosphere.net/12/3827/2018/tc-12-3827-2018.pdf
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