Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2001-01-01
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| Series: | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| Online Access: | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/8/419/2001/npg-8-419-2001.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818247949673562112 |
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| author | C. Ziehmann |
| author_facet | C. Ziehmann |
| author_sort | C. Ziehmann |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:12:50Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-312146cd464d4beb8986b7c4763857f3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1023-5809 1607-7946 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T15:12:50Z |
| publishDate | 2001-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj.art-312146cd464d4beb8986b7c4763857f32022-12-22T00:20:34ZengCopernicus PublicationsNonlinear Processes in Geophysics1023-58091607-79462001-01-0186419428Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensembleC. ZiehmannEnsemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected forecast skill. Several quantities derived from the local ensemble distribution are investigated for a two year data set of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) temperature and wind speed ensemble forecasts at 30 German stations. The results indicate that the population of the ensemble mode provides useful information for the uncertainty in temperature forecasts. The ensemble entropy is a similar good measure. This is not true for the spread if it is simply calculated as the variance of the ensemble members with respect to the ensemble mean. The number of clusters in the C regions is almost unrelated to the local skill. For wind forecasts, the results are less promising.http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/8/419/2001/npg-8-419-2001.pdf |
| spellingShingle | C. Ziehmann Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics |
| title | Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| title_full | Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| title_fullStr | Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| title_short | Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble |
| title_sort | skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ecmwf ensemble |
| url | http://www.nonlin-processes-geophys.net/8/419/2001/npg-8-419-2001.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cziehmann skillpredictionoflocalweatherforecastsbasedontheecmwfensemble |