Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty

The numerous environmental flows assessment methods that exist typically assume a stationary climate. Adaptive management is commonly put forward as the preferred approach for managing uncertainty and change in environmental flows. However, we contend that a simple adaptive management loop falls sho...

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Main Authors: Avril C. Horne, J. Angus Webb, Meghan Mussehl, Andrew John, Libby Rumpff, Keirnan Fowler, Daniel Lovell, LeRoy Poff
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-05-01
Series:Frontiers in Environmental Science
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.808943/full
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author Avril C. Horne
J. Angus Webb
Meghan Mussehl
Andrew John
Libby Rumpff
Keirnan Fowler
Daniel Lovell
LeRoy Poff
LeRoy Poff
author_facet Avril C. Horne
J. Angus Webb
Meghan Mussehl
Andrew John
Libby Rumpff
Keirnan Fowler
Daniel Lovell
LeRoy Poff
LeRoy Poff
author_sort Avril C. Horne
collection DOAJ
description The numerous environmental flows assessment methods that exist typically assume a stationary climate. Adaptive management is commonly put forward as the preferred approach for managing uncertainty and change in environmental flows. However, we contend that a simple adaptive management loop falls short of meeting the challenges posed by climate change. Rather, a fundamental rethink is required to ensure both the structure of environmental flows assessments, along with each individual technical element, actively acknowledges the multiple dimensions of change, variability and complexity in socio-ecological systems. This paper outlines how environmental flow assessments can explicitly address the uncertainty and change inherent in adaptively managing multiple values for management of environmental flows. While non-stationarity and uncertainty are well recognised in the climate literature, these have not been addressed within the structure of environmental flows methodologies. Here, we present an environmental flow assessment that is structured to explicitly consider future change and uncertainty in climate and socio-ecological values, by examining scenarios using ecological models. The environmental flow assessment methodology further supports adaptive management through the intentional integration of participatory approaches and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders. We present a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, highlighting how this methodology facilitates adaptive management. Rethinking our approach to environmental flows assessments is an important step in ensuring that environmental flows continue to work effectively as a management tool under climate change.
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spelling doaj.art-3797fee434454e978aac843f08b9ab032022-12-22T00:37:54ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Environmental Science2296-665X2022-05-011010.3389/fenvs.2022.808943808943Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of UncertaintyAvril C. Horne0J. Angus Webb1Meghan Mussehl2Andrew John3Libby Rumpff4Keirnan Fowler5Daniel Lovell6LeRoy Poff7LeRoy Poff8The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaThe University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaThe University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaThe University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaThe University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaThe University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, AustraliaGoulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Sheparton, VIC, AustraliaUniversity of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaColorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United StatesThe numerous environmental flows assessment methods that exist typically assume a stationary climate. Adaptive management is commonly put forward as the preferred approach for managing uncertainty and change in environmental flows. However, we contend that a simple adaptive management loop falls short of meeting the challenges posed by climate change. Rather, a fundamental rethink is required to ensure both the structure of environmental flows assessments, along with each individual technical element, actively acknowledges the multiple dimensions of change, variability and complexity in socio-ecological systems. This paper outlines how environmental flow assessments can explicitly address the uncertainty and change inherent in adaptively managing multiple values for management of environmental flows. While non-stationarity and uncertainty are well recognised in the climate literature, these have not been addressed within the structure of environmental flows methodologies. Here, we present an environmental flow assessment that is structured to explicitly consider future change and uncertainty in climate and socio-ecological values, by examining scenarios using ecological models. The environmental flow assessment methodology further supports adaptive management through the intentional integration of participatory approaches and the inclusion of diverse stakeholders. We present a case study to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, highlighting how this methodology facilitates adaptive management. Rethinking our approach to environmental flows assessments is an important step in ensuring that environmental flows continue to work effectively as a management tool under climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.808943/fullenvironmental flowsuncertaintyadaptive managementnon-stationarityeflows
spellingShingle Avril C. Horne
J. Angus Webb
Meghan Mussehl
Andrew John
Libby Rumpff
Keirnan Fowler
Daniel Lovell
LeRoy Poff
LeRoy Poff
Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
Frontiers in Environmental Science
environmental flows
uncertainty
adaptive management
non-stationarity
eflows
title Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
title_full Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
title_fullStr Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
title_full_unstemmed Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
title_short Not Just Another Assessment Method: Reimagining Environmental Flows Assessments in the Face of Uncertainty
title_sort not just another assessment method reimagining environmental flows assessments in the face of uncertainty
topic environmental flows
uncertainty
adaptive management
non-stationarity
eflows
url https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.808943/full
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