Forecasting the Timing of the Emergence of a Dominant Design: The Case of the Projectors
The timing of market entry is important for companies to achieve commercial success. The relationship between good market entry timing and the emergence of a dominant design was discussed. However, the dominant design was assumed to be known only in retrospect. In this study, targeting the proje...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Universitas Indonesia
2024-01-01
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| Series: | International Journal of Technology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://ijtech.eng.ui.ac.id/article/view/6068 |
| Summary: | The timing of
market entry is important for companies to achieve commercial success. The
relationship between good market entry timing and the emergence of a dominant
design was discussed. However, the dominant design was assumed to be known only
in retrospect. In this study, targeting the projector industry, we demonstrate
that the timing of the emergence of the dominant design can be forecast in
advance by deriving the time relationship between product launch and patent
application. The emergence of dominant designs and the timing of their
emergence were identified based on the analysis of product trends in the
market. The timing of the patent application that the dominant design will
emerge was forecast based on the analysis of technology trends using patent
information. The cycle type of the projector industry was considered, and the
time lag between patent application and product launch was inferred. This study
provides a useful insight into the dominant design. |
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| ISSN: | 2086-9614 2087-2100 |