Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile
This paper is aimed at finding individual and systemic determinants of housing default in a full-recourse economy. We propose an empirical strategy that accounts for rare events and choice-based sampling bias and estimates the contribution of idiosyncratic and systemic determinants, as well as their...
Main Authors: | , , |
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Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2020-01-01
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Series: | Latin American Journal of Central Banking |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143820300090 |
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author | Diego Avanzini Juan Francisco Martı́nez Vı́ctor Pérez |
author_facet | Diego Avanzini Juan Francisco Martı́nez Vı́ctor Pérez |
author_sort | Diego Avanzini |
collection | DOAJ |
description | This paper is aimed at finding individual and systemic determinants of housing default in a full-recourse economy. We propose an empirical strategy that accounts for rare events and choice-based sampling bias and estimates the contribution of idiosyncratic and systemic determinants, as well as their interactions. To support our empirical approach, we adapt and extend a well-known model of mortgage default for nonrecourse economies (Geanakoplos and Zame, 2014), adding a nonpecuniary cost for defaulting to account for possible loss of utility due to the full-recourse framework. This model applies to economies such as Spain, Australia, and Chile, where defaulters can be prosecuted until their debts are completely settled. Under the proposed model, we obtain an analytical expression involving default determinants for micro and macro mortgage loans. As a case study, we estimate this relationship for the Chilean economy using information from the Chilean Survey of Household Finance (EFH). As stated by our micro–macro model, household financial conditions and their interactions with systemic determinants account for an important part of the cross-sectional probability of mortgage default. |
first_indexed | 2024-12-17T05:38:54Z |
format | Article |
id | doaj.art-414a9050eb9040abbb719194ea098c64 |
institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
issn | 2666-1438 |
language | English |
last_indexed | 2024-12-17T05:38:54Z |
publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
publisher | Elsevier |
record_format | Article |
series | Latin American Journal of Central Banking |
spelling | doaj.art-414a9050eb9040abbb719194ea098c642022-12-21T22:01:32ZengElsevierLatin American Journal of Central Banking2666-14382020-01-0111100009Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of ChileDiego Avanzini0Juan Francisco Martı́nez1Vı́ctor Pérez2International Center for Globalization and Development—CIGLOB, Chile; Corresponding author.Central Bank of Chile, ChileProvida AFP, ChileThis paper is aimed at finding individual and systemic determinants of housing default in a full-recourse economy. We propose an empirical strategy that accounts for rare events and choice-based sampling bias and estimates the contribution of idiosyncratic and systemic determinants, as well as their interactions. To support our empirical approach, we adapt and extend a well-known model of mortgage default for nonrecourse economies (Geanakoplos and Zame, 2014), adding a nonpecuniary cost for defaulting to account for possible loss of utility due to the full-recourse framework. This model applies to economies such as Spain, Australia, and Chile, where defaulters can be prosecuted until their debts are completely settled. Under the proposed model, we obtain an analytical expression involving default determinants for micro and macro mortgage loans. As a case study, we estimate this relationship for the Chilean economy using information from the Chilean Survey of Household Finance (EFH). As stated by our micro–macro model, household financial conditions and their interactions with systemic determinants account for an important part of the cross-sectional probability of mortgage default.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143820300090C35D53E44G21 |
spellingShingle | Diego Avanzini Juan Francisco Martı́nez Vı́ctor Pérez Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile Latin American Journal of Central Banking C35 D53 E44 G21 |
title | Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile |
title_full | Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile |
title_fullStr | Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile |
title_full_unstemmed | Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile |
title_short | Assessing mortgage default risk in full-recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile |
title_sort | assessing mortgage default risk in full recourse economies with an application to the case of chile |
topic | C35 D53 E44 G21 |
url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666143820300090 |
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