Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments
The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sp...
| Κύριοι συγγραφείς: | , , , |
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| Μορφή: | Άρθρο |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Έκδοση: |
Cambridge University Press
2016-09-01
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| Σειρά: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Θέματα: | |
| Διαθέσιμο Online: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500004599/type/journal_article |