Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate
Abstract The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project dataset...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-09-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00480-6 |
| _version_ | 1827635022211842048 |
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| author | Sharif Jahfer Kyung-Ja Ha Christian L. E. Franzke Sun-Seon Lee Keith B. Rodgers Dong-Eun Lee |
| author_facet | Sharif Jahfer Kyung-Ja Ha Christian L. E. Franzke Sun-Seon Lee Keith B. Rodgers Dong-Eun Lee |
| author_sort | Sharif Jahfer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:22:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-5cc7c22e14e541808001f701d6b19b73 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T15:22:23Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-5cc7c22e14e541808001f701d6b19b732023-11-26T12:44:56ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222023-09-01611910.1038/s41612-023-00480-6Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climateSharif Jahfer0Kyung-Ja Ha1Christian L. E. Franzke2Sun-Seon Lee3Keith B. Rodgers4Dong-Eun Lee5Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National UniversityResearch Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National UniversityCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceCenter for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic ScienceDepartment of Marine Environmental Science, Chungnam National UniversityAbstract The sea level pressure variability in the North Pacific modulates the climate of the Arctic and surrounding continents, substantially impacting ecosystems and indigenous communities. Our analysis based on data from the CESM2 Large Ensemble and different Model Intercomparison Project datasets reveals that the interannual variability of Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) gradually decouples from the contemporaneous atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific as external forcing increases in intensity in the future. Future projections show that the North Pacific-Arctic relationship during the fall season consistently weakens in magnitude until the end of this century, and in the 22nd and 23rd centuries, the relationship is negligible throughout the year. We show that under increased greenhouse gas emissions, the regional heat fluxes extensively control the Arctic temperature variability, and the strength of the projected North Pacific-Arctic relationship is strongly dependent on the Arctic sea ice extent. Our results suggest that under future warming, a strong coupling of Arctic SAT with the underlying ocean and a weakening of the meridional pressure gradient driven by an enhanced rate of sea ice retreat will weaken the interannual footprint of North Pacific variability on Arctic SAT. Therefore, we propose that the alarming rate of sea-ice decline over recent decades and projected in the near future could accelerate the rate of decoupling. Further, we suggest that mitigation strategies for the Arctic should focus on regional mechanisms operating on interannual and seasonal timescales.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00480-6 |
| spellingShingle | Sharif Jahfer Kyung-Ja Ha Christian L. E. Franzke Sun-Seon Lee Keith B. Rodgers Dong-Eun Lee Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate |
| title_full | Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate |
| title_fullStr | Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate |
| title_short | Decoupling of Arctic variability from the North Pacific in a warmer climate |
| title_sort | decoupling of arctic variability from the north pacific in a warmer climate |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00480-6 |
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