China’s uncertain demographic present and future
This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also acc...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Austrian Academy of Sciences Press
2007-12-01
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| Series: | Vienna Yearbook of Population Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2007/Yearbook2007_Lutz-et-al_China_pp37-59.pdf |
| _version_ | 1798017105697701888 |
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| author | Qiang Ren Xiaoying Zheng Gui Ying Cao Sergei Scherbov Wolfgang Lutz |
| author_facet | Qiang Ren Xiaoying Zheng Gui Ying Cao Sergei Scherbov Wolfgang Lutz |
| author_sort | Qiang Ren |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China’s current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China’s population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:01:23Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-61212a408a1c4463b922a97c4fa1a8db |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1728-4414 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:01:23Z |
| publishDate | 2007-12-01 |
| publisher | Austrian Academy of Sciences Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Vienna Yearbook of Population Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-61212a408a1c4463b922a97c4fa1a8db2022-12-22T04:14:57ZengAustrian Academy of Sciences PressVienna Yearbook of Population Research1728-44142007-12-0120075759China’s uncertain demographic present and futureQiang RenXiaoying ZhengGui Ying CaoSergei ScherbovWolfgang LutzThis paper applies methods of probabilistic population forecasting to assess the range of uncertainty of China’s future population trends. Unlike previous applications of probabilistic population projections that consider stochastic future fertility, mortality and migration, this paper will also account for the significant uncertainty of China’s current fertility level (with published figures ranging from 1.2 to 2.3) and the related uncertainties about the sex ratio at birth (with estimates from 1.06 to above 1.2) and the size of the youngest cohorts in the 2000 census. The model applied in this paper will be based on assumed uncertainty ranges for current conditions, in addition to the probabilistic treatment of future trends. Given the sheer size of China’s population, these significant uncertainties about current conditions are of high importance not only for the future population of China but also for considerations on a global scale.http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2007/Yearbook2007_Lutz-et-al_China_pp37-59.pdfChinapopulationprojectionspopulation projectionsfertilitysex ratiopopulation ageingprobabilistic projections |
| spellingShingle | Qiang Ren Xiaoying Zheng Gui Ying Cao Sergei Scherbov Wolfgang Lutz China’s uncertain demographic present and future Vienna Yearbook of Population Research China population projections population projections fertility sex ratio population ageing probabilistic projections |
| title | China’s uncertain demographic present and future |
| title_full | China’s uncertain demographic present and future |
| title_fullStr | China’s uncertain demographic present and future |
| title_full_unstemmed | China’s uncertain demographic present and future |
| title_short | China’s uncertain demographic present and future |
| title_sort | china s uncertain demographic present and future |
| topic | China population projections population projections fertility sex ratio population ageing probabilistic projections |
| url | http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/publications/VYPR2007/Yearbook2007_Lutz-et-al_China_pp37-59.pdf |
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