Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures

Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures

We present here two self-consistent implementations of a short-term earthquake probability (STEP) model that produces daily seismicity forecasts for the area of the Italian national seismic network. Both implementations combine a time-varying and a time-invariant contribution, for which we assume th...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Damiano Monelli, J. Douglas Zechar, Annemarie Christophersen, Jochen Woessner
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) 2010-11-01
Series:Annals of Geophysics
Subjects:
Earthquake statistics, Earthquake forecasting, Likelihood testing, Aftershock model, Seismicity analysis.
Online Access:http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4812

Internet

http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4812

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