Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures
We present here two self-consistent implementations of a short-term earthquake probability (STEP) model that produces daily seismicity forecasts for the area of the Italian national seismic network. Both implementations combine a time-varying and a time-invariant contribution, for which we assume th...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
2010-11-01
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| Series: | Annals of Geophysics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4812 |
| _version_ | 1819293606786105344 |
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| author | Damiano Monelli J. Douglas Zechar Annemarie Christophersen Jochen Woessner |
| author_facet | Damiano Monelli J. Douglas Zechar Annemarie Christophersen Jochen Woessner |
| author_sort | Damiano Monelli |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We present here two self-consistent implementations of a short-term earthquake probability (STEP) model that produces daily seismicity forecasts for the area of the Italian national seismic network. Both implementations combine a time-varying and a time-invariant contribution, for which we assume that the instrumental Italian earthquake catalog provides the best information. For the time-invariant contribution, the catalog is declustered using the clustering technique of the STEP model; the smoothed seismicity model is generated from the declustered catalog. The time-varying contribution is what distinguishes the two implementations: 1) for one implementation (STEP-LG), the original model parameterization and estimation is used; 2) for the other (STEP-NG), the mean abundance method is used to estimate aftershock productivity. In the STEP-NG implementation, earthquakes with magnitude up to ML= 6.2 are expected to be less productive compared to the STEP-LG implementation, whereas larger earthquakes are expected to be more productive. We have retrospectively tested the performance of these two implementations and applied likelihood tests to evaluate their consistencies with observed earthquakes. Both of these implementations were consistent with the observed earthquake data in space: STEP-NG performed better than STEP-LG in terms of forecast rates. More generally, we found that testing earthquake forecasts issued at regular intervals does not test the full power of clustering models, and future experiments should allow for more frequent forecasts starting at the times of triggering events. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:13:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-67db392d1c114756913cefc007c0a943 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1593-5213 2037-416X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-24T04:13:06Z |
| publishDate | 2010-11-01 |
| publisher | Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Annals of Geophysics |
| spelling | doaj.art-67db392d1c114756913cefc007c0a9432022-12-21T17:16:01ZengIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)Annals of Geophysics1593-52132037-416X2010-11-0153314115410.4401/ag-4812Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration proceduresDamiano MonelliJ. Douglas ZecharAnnemarie ChristophersenJochen WoessnerWe present here two self-consistent implementations of a short-term earthquake probability (STEP) model that produces daily seismicity forecasts for the area of the Italian national seismic network. Both implementations combine a time-varying and a time-invariant contribution, for which we assume that the instrumental Italian earthquake catalog provides the best information. For the time-invariant contribution, the catalog is declustered using the clustering technique of the STEP model; the smoothed seismicity model is generated from the declustered catalog. The time-varying contribution is what distinguishes the two implementations: 1) for one implementation (STEP-LG), the original model parameterization and estimation is used; 2) for the other (STEP-NG), the mean abundance method is used to estimate aftershock productivity. In the STEP-NG implementation, earthquakes with magnitude up to ML= 6.2 are expected to be less productive compared to the STEP-LG implementation, whereas larger earthquakes are expected to be more productive. We have retrospectively tested the performance of these two implementations and applied likelihood tests to evaluate their consistencies with observed earthquakes. Both of these implementations were consistent with the observed earthquake data in space: STEP-NG performed better than STEP-LG in terms of forecast rates. More generally, we found that testing earthquake forecasts issued at regular intervals does not test the full power of clustering models, and future experiments should allow for more frequent forecasts starting at the times of triggering events.http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4812Earthquake statistics, Earthquake forecasting, Likelihood testing, Aftershock model, Seismicity analysis. |
| spellingShingle | Damiano Monelli J. Douglas Zechar Annemarie Christophersen Jochen Woessner Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures Annals of Geophysics Earthquake statistics, Earthquake forecasting, Likelihood testing, Aftershock model, Seismicity analysis. |
| title | Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| title_full | Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| title_fullStr | Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| title_full_unstemmed | Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| title_short | Building self-consistent, short-term earthquake probability (STEP) models: improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| title_sort | building self consistent short term earthquake probability step models improved strategies and calibration procedures |
| topic | Earthquake statistics, Earthquake forecasting, Likelihood testing, Aftershock model, Seismicity analysis. |
| url | http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/4812 |
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