Filter Likelihood as an Observation-Based Verification Metric in Ensemble Forecasting

Filter Likelihood as an Observation-Based Verification Metric in Ensemble Forecasting

In numerical weather prediction (NWP), ensemble forecasting aims to quantify the flow-dependent forecast uncertainty. The focus here is on observation-based verification of the reliability of ensemble forecasting systems. In particular, at short forecast lead times, forecast errors tend to be relati...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Madeleine Ekblom, Lauri Tuppi, Olle Räty, Pirkka Ollinaho, Marko Laine, Heikki Järvinen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Stockholm University Press 2023-02-01
Series:Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Subjects:
numerical weather prediction
bayesian estimation
kalman filtering
filter likelihood score
probabilistic verification
ensemble prediction
Online Access:https://account.a.tellusjournals.se/index.php/up/article/view/96

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https://account.a.tellusjournals.se/index.php/up/article/view/96

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