Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions
Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. Th...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2022-10-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Veterinary Science |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592/full |
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| author | Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Amy H. Delgado Amy D. Hagerman Miranda R. Bertram Miranda R. Bertram Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Carolina Stenfeldt Carolina Stenfeldt Lindsey Holmstrom Jonathan Arzt |
| author_facet | Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Amy H. Delgado Amy D. Hagerman Miranda R. Bertram Miranda R. Bertram Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Carolina Stenfeldt Carolina Stenfeldt Lindsey Holmstrom Jonathan Arzt |
| author_sort | Shankar Yadav |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Development of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T18:55:16Z |
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| id | doaj.art-7633f2e0614446a9a8bd892908d33395 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T18:55:16Z |
| publishDate | 2022-10-01 |
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| spelling | doaj.art-7633f2e0614446a9a8bd892908d333952022-12-22T04:08:13ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Veterinary Science2297-17692022-10-01910.3389/fvets.2022.10265921026592Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regionsShankar Yadav0Shankar Yadav1Shankar Yadav2Amy H. Delgado3Amy D. Hagerman4Miranda R. Bertram5Miranda R. Bertram6Karla I. Moreno-Torres7Karla I. Moreno-Torres8Karla I. Moreno-Torres9Carolina Stenfeldt10Carolina Stenfeldt11Lindsey Holmstrom12Jonathan Arzt13Foreign Animal Disease Research Unit, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greenport, NY, United StatesCenter for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, United StatesPlum Island Animal Disease Center Research Participation Program, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN, United StatesCenter for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, United StatesDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, United StatesForeign Animal Disease Research Unit, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greenport, NY, United StatesPlum Island Animal Disease Center Research Participation Program, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN, United StatesForeign Animal Disease Research Unit, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greenport, NY, United StatesCenter for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, United StatesPlum Island Animal Disease Center Research Participation Program, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Oak Ridge, TN, United StatesForeign Animal Disease Research Unit, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greenport, NY, United StatesDepartment of Diagnostic Medicine/Pathobiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United StatesCenter for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, United StatesForeign Animal Disease Research Unit, Plum Island Animal Disease Center, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Greenport, NY, United StatesDevelopment of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) carrier state following FMD virus (FMDV) infection is a well-established phenomenon in cattle. However, the proportion of cattle likely to become carriers and the duration of the carrier state at a herd or population-level are incompletely understood. The objective of this study was to examine the epidemiologic and economic impacts of vaccination-to-live strategy in a disease-free region or country. We developed and simulated scenarios of FMD spread and control in the US livestock population, which included depopulation for a limited period, followed by a vaccinate-to-live strategy with strong biosecurity and movement restrictions. Six scenarios of FMD spread and control were simulated in the InterSpread Plus (ISP) modeling tool. Data on the number of infected and depopulated cattle (by operation types) from ISP model runs were used to estimate the monthly number of infected but not depopulated (potential carrier) cattle after the infection. Using available literature data on the FMD carrier state, we estimated the monthly proportion of carrier cattle (from infected but not depopulated cattle) over time following infection. Among the simulated scenarios, the median (25th, 75th percentile) number of infected cattle ranged from 43,217 (42,819, 55,274) head to 148,907 (75,819, 205,350) head, and the epidemic duration ranged from 20 (11, 30) to 76 (38, 136) days. In general, larger outbreaks occurred when depopulation was carried out through longer periods, and the onset of the vaccination was late (p > 0.05). The estimated proportion of surviving cattle, which were infected and not depopulated and had the potential to become persistently infected ranged from 14 to 35% of total infected cattle. Production losses in beef and dairy sectors were higher when outbreaks started in multiple states simultaneously, but production losses were small compared to trade losses and consumer avoidance losses. These results can be used to inform the consideration of a vaccinate-to-live strategy for FMD outbreaks and the development of appropriate post-outbreak management strategies. Furthermore, this output will enable a more detailed examination of the epidemiologic and economic implications of allowing convalescent cattle to survive and remain in production chains after FMD outbreaks in FMD-free regions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592/fullfoot-and-mouth diseaseFMDvaccinationcarrierviruseconomic model |
| spellingShingle | Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Shankar Yadav Amy H. Delgado Amy D. Hagerman Miranda R. Bertram Miranda R. Bertram Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Karla I. Moreno-Torres Carolina Stenfeldt Carolina Stenfeldt Lindsey Holmstrom Jonathan Arzt Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions Frontiers in Veterinary Science foot-and-mouth disease FMD vaccination carrier virus economic model |
| title | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
| title_full | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
| title_short | Epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate-to-live strategies for control of foot-and-mouth disease in FMD-free regions |
| title_sort | epidemiologic and economic considerations regarding persistently infected cattle during vaccinate to live strategies for control of foot and mouth disease in fmd free regions |
| topic | foot-and-mouth disease FMD vaccination carrier virus economic model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fvets.2022.1026592/full |
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