ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate
The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anoma...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IOP Publishing
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 |
| _version_ | 1797747243193729024 |
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| author | Xuan Ma Lei Wang Doug Smith Leon Hermanson Rosie Eade Nick Dunstone Steven Hardiman Jiankai Zhang |
| author_facet | Xuan Ma Lei Wang Doug Smith Leon Hermanson Rosie Eade Nick Dunstone Steven Hardiman Jiankai Zhang |
| author_sort | Xuan Ma |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anomaly but can also be modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using reanalysis data and hindcasts from the decadal prediction system version 4, here we show that both cold and warm winters occur over Eurasia when the Barents–Kara Sea sea ice is abnormally low. Warm winters occur during the La Niña-easterly QBO-low sea ice (LANINA-EQBO-LICE) years and cold winters during the neutral ENSO-neutral QBO (NENSO-NQBO)-LICE and El Niño (ELNINO)-NQBO-LICE years. During the LANINA-EQBO-LICE years, weakened upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere strengthen the Arctic SPV and then weaken the Aleutian low and Siberian high, creating conditions favorable for Eurasian warming. The atmospheric responses are opposite in the NENSO-NQBO-LICE and ELNINO-NQBO-LICE years. This implies that care should be taken in using Arctic sea ice alone as the precursor to predict boreal winter climate. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-7d0f6ab8e2a045539d7aa06990cb684f |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:48:01Z |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-7d0f6ab8e2a045539d7aa06990cb684f2023-08-09T15:19:54ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262022-01-01171212401610.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climateXuan Ma0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0596-0786Lei Wang1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1618-1796Doug Smith2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5708-694XLeon Hermanson3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1062-6731Rosie Eade4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3566-4232Nick Dunstone5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6859-6814Steven Hardiman6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9813-1209Jiankai Zhang7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8491-0225Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University , Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; Innovation Center of Ocean and Atmosphere System, Zhuhai Fudan Innovation Research Institute , Zhuhai, People’s Republic of China; Shanghai Qi Zhi Institute , Shanghai, People’s Republic of ChinaMet Office Hadley Centre , Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United KingdomMet Office Hadley Centre , Fitz Roy Road, Exeter, United KingdomCollege of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou, People’s Republic of China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) , Zhuhai, People’s Republic of ChinaThe causality between Arctic sea ice decline and cold boreal winters has been widely debated recently and remains controversial. A major source of uncertainty in the sea ice-cold winter relationship originates from that the stratosphere polar vortex (SPV) is not only affected by Arctic sea ice anomaly but can also be modulated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using reanalysis data and hindcasts from the decadal prediction system version 4, here we show that both cold and warm winters occur over Eurasia when the Barents–Kara Sea sea ice is abnormally low. Warm winters occur during the La Niña-easterly QBO-low sea ice (LANINA-EQBO-LICE) years and cold winters during the neutral ENSO-neutral QBO (NENSO-NQBO)-LICE and El Niño (ELNINO)-NQBO-LICE years. During the LANINA-EQBO-LICE years, weakened upward-propagating planetary waves from the troposphere to the stratosphere strengthen the Arctic SPV and then weaken the Aleutian low and Siberian high, creating conditions favorable for Eurasian warming. The atmospheric responses are opposite in the NENSO-NQBO-LICE and ELNINO-NQBO-LICE years. This implies that care should be taken in using Arctic sea ice alone as the precursor to predict boreal winter climate.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9Barents–Kara Sea sea iceEurasian winter climateENSOQBOstratosphere–troposphere coupling |
| spellingShingle | Xuan Ma Lei Wang Doug Smith Leon Hermanson Rosie Eade Nick Dunstone Steven Hardiman Jiankai Zhang ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate Environmental Research Letters Barents–Kara Sea sea ice Eurasian winter climate ENSO QBO stratosphere–troposphere coupling |
| title | ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
| title_full | ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
| title_fullStr | ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
| title_short | ENSO and QBO modulation of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and Eurasian winter climate |
| title_sort | enso and qbo modulation of the relationship between arctic sea ice loss and eurasian winter climate |
| topic | Barents–Kara Sea sea ice Eurasian winter climate ENSO QBO stratosphere–troposphere coupling |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca4e9 |
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