Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics
We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us pred...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2018-09-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517300750 |
| _version_ | 1818335822125989888 |
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| author | Marco Tulio Angulo Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez |
| author_facet | Marco Tulio Angulo Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez |
| author_sort | Marco Tulio Angulo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers. Keywords: Epidemic prediction, Inference, Contact rate |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T14:29:32Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-862b5711db7a417ab6fd5cbb35f2397e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T14:29:32Z |
| publishDate | 2018-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj.art-862b5711db7a417ab6fd5cbb35f2397e2022-12-21T23:41:51ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652018-09-012498104Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemicsMarco Tulio Angulo0Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez1CONACyT – Institute of Mathematics, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Juriquilla 76230, Mexico; Corresponding author.Institute of Mathematics, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Juriquilla 76230, MexicoWe will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing algorithms based on estimating reproductive numbers. Keywords: Epidemic prediction, Inference, Contact ratehttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517300750 |
| spellingShingle | Marco Tulio Angulo Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics Epidemics |
| title | Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| title_full | Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| title_fullStr | Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| title_full_unstemmed | Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| title_short | Robust qualitative estimation of time-varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| title_sort | robust qualitative estimation of time varying contact rates in uncertain epidemics |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436517300750 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT marcotulioangulo robustqualitativeestimationoftimevaryingcontactratesinuncertainepidemics AT jorgexvelascohernandez robustqualitativeestimationoftimevaryingcontactratesinuncertainepidemics |