A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

A novel sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic waves

Abstract Background Simple phenomenological growth models can be useful for estimating transmission parameters and forecasting epidemic trajectories. However, most existing phenomenological growth models only support single-peak outbreak dynamics whereas real epidemics often display more complex tra...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Gerardo Chowell, Amna Tariq, James M. Hyman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2019-08-01
Series:BMC Medicine
Subjects:
Mathematical framework
Epidemic wave
Sub-epidemic
Unobserved heterogeneity
SARS
Plague
Online Access:http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-019-1406-6

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http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12916-019-1406-6

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