Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?

Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have shown a wide range of variations. In our study, we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calib...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Weston C. Roda, Marie B. Varughese, Donglin Han, Michael Y. Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2020-01-01
Series:Infectious Disease Modelling
Subjects:
COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan
SIR and SEIR models
Bayesian inference
Model selection
Nonidentifiability
Quarantine
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300075

Internet

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720300075

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