| Summary: | Knowledge discovery in biomedical data using supervised methods assumes that the data contain structure relevant to the class structure if a classifier can be trained to assign a case to the correct class better than by guessing. In this setting, acceptance or rejection of a scientific hypothesis may depend critically on the ability to classify cases better than randomly, without high classification performance being the primary goal. Random forests are often chosen for knowledge-discovery tasks because they are considered a powerful classifier that does not require sophisticated data transformation or hyperparameter tuning and can be regarded as a reference classifier for tabular numerical data. Here, we report a case where the failure of random forests using the default hyperparameter settings in the standard implementations of R and Python would have led to the rejection of the hypothesis that the data contained structure relevant to the class structure. After tuning the hyperparameters, classification performance increased from 56% to 65% balanced accuracy in R, and from 55% to 67% balanced accuracy in Python. More importantly, the 95% confidence intervals in the tuned versions were to the right of the value of 50% that characterizes guessing-level classification. Thus, tuning provided the desired evidence that the data structure supported the class structure of the data set. In this case, the tuning made more than a quantitative difference in the form of slightly better classification accuracy, but significantly changed the interpretation of the data set. This is especially true when classification performance is low and a small improvement increases the balanced accuracy to over 50% when guessing.
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