On the predictability of outliers in ensemble forecasts

In numerical weather prediction, ensembles are used to retrieve probabilistic forecasts of future weather conditions. We consider events where the verification is smaller than the smallest, or larger than the largest ensemble member of a scalar ensemble forecast. These events are called outliers. In...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: S. Siegert, J. Bröcker, H. Kantz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2012-03-01
Series:Advances in Science and Research
Online Access:http://www.adv-sci-res.net/8/53/2012/asr-8-53-2012.pdf