Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skil...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2021-07-01
|
| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z |
| _version_ | 1818840340909522944 |
|---|---|
| author | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer |
| author_facet | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer |
| author_sort | James S. Risbey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T04:08:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c83 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T04:08:38Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj.art-9d7dd92951164f0cb18c3354bbbe7c832022-12-21T20:36:28ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232021-07-0112111410.1038/s41467-021-23771-zStandard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleadingJames S. Risbey0Dougal T. Squire1Amanda S. Black2Timothy DelSole3Chiara Lepore4Richard J. Matear5Didier P. Monselesan6Thomas S. Moore7Doug Richardson8Andrew Schepen9Michael K. Tippett10Carly R. Tozer11CSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason UniversityLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia UniversityCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereCSIRO Land & WaterDepartment of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia UniversityCSIRO Oceans & AtmosphereMany different methods have been developed to forecast climate phenomena like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which makes a fair comparison of their capabilities crucial. In this perspective, the authors discuss how choices in the evaluation method can lead to an overestimated perceived skill of ENSO forecasts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z |
| spellingShingle | James S. Risbey Dougal T. Squire Amanda S. Black Timothy DelSole Chiara Lepore Richard J. Matear Didier P. Monselesan Thomas S. Moore Doug Richardson Andrew Schepen Michael K. Tippett Carly R. Tozer Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading Nature Communications |
| title | Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| title_full | Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| title_fullStr | Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| title_full_unstemmed | Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| title_short | Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| title_sort | standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jamessrisbey standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT dougaltsquire standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT amandasblack standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT timothydelsole standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT chiaralepore standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT richardjmatear standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT didierpmonselesan standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT thomassmoore standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT dougrichardson standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT andrewschepen standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT michaelktippett standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading AT carlyrtozer standardassessmentsofclimateforecastskillcanbemisleading |