Uncertainty growth and forecast reliability during extratropical cyclogenesis

<p>In global numerical weather prediction, the strongest contribution to ensemble variance growth over the first few days is at synoptic scales. Hence it is particularly important to ensure that this synoptic-scale variance is reliable. Here we focus on wintertime synoptic-scale growth in the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: M. J. Rodwell, H. Wernli
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Copernicus Publications 2023-07-01
Series:Weather and Climate Dynamics
Online Access:https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/4/591/2023/wcd-4-591-2023.pdf