Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)
Stastny and Lehner (2018) reported a study comparing the forecast accuracy of a US intelligence community prediction market (ICPM) to traditionally produced intelligence reports. Five analysts unaffiliated with the intelligence reports imputed forecasts from the reports after stating their personal...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
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| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/19/190417/jdm190417.pdf |