Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

Abstract The Aso-4 explosive eruption on Kyushu, Japan, 89,500 years ago was one of the biggest eruptions in the last one hundred millennia, with a magnitude of approximately M8. Modern society requires the likelihood of natural events with potentially disastrous consequences to be evaluated, even i...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Willy Aspinall, R. Stephen J. Sparks, Brittain E. Hill, Antonio Costa, Charles Connor, Hirohito Inakura, Toshiaki Hasenaka, Masaya Miyoshi, Koji Kiyosugi, Tomohiro Tsuji, Masashi Ushioda
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMC 2023-07-01
Series:Journal of Applied Volcanology
Subjects:
Aso volcano
Japan
Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment
Super-eruption probability
100-year forecast
Expert elicitation
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8

Internet

https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8

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