Intrinsic randomness in epidemic modelling beyond statistical uncertainty

Abstract Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever observe a single epidemic, and therefore cannot empirical...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Matthew J. Penn, Daniel J. Laydon, Joseph Penn, Charles Whittaker, Christian Morgenstern, Oliver Ratmann, Swapnil Mishra, Mikko S. Pakkanen, Christl A. Donnelly, Samir Bhatt
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2023-06-01
Series:Communications Physics
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s42005-023-01265-2