The Banking Industry Foresight Using the Scenario Planning Approach and the Cross-Effects Matrix
While this study identifies the most important key indicators that influence the banking industry, it also attempts to provide a forecast for the Iranian banking industry in the future. Scenario planning and cross-impact matrix are used in this study. Among all the identified factors, 29 key factors...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Jezik: | fas |
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Allameh Tabataba'i University Press
2021-09-01
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| Serija: | مطالعات مدیریت کسب و کار هوشمند |
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| Online dostop: | https://ims.atu.ac.ir/article_12867_17a4accff322f9ee74fcaa672322d7aa.pdf |
| Izvleček: | While this study identifies the most important key indicators that influence the banking industry, it also attempts to provide a forecast for the Iranian banking industry in the future. Scenario planning and cross-impact matrix are used in this study. Among all the identified factors, 29 key factors influencing the future of the industry were selected through a fuzzy analytical hierarchical process and then the impact of each of these factors was determined through analysis of the cross-impact matrix. The cross-impact balance was then used to write scenarios.Accordingly, of all combined scenarios, the most likely strong scenarios were clustered into five general categories using K-mode clustering. Finally, four scenarios were identified, including optimism for the bank, banking industry development, inflationary conditions and sanctions. It was therefore possible to define action plans for each of the scenarios. |
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| ISSN: | 2821-0964 2821-0816 |