Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake

Forecasting aftershock earthquakes is a critical step in improving seismic hazard mitigation. The authors here combine Bayesian methods with extreme value theory to tackle this problem - and manage to estimate the maximum magnitude of an expected earthquake as well as the arrival times in a pre-defi...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Robert Shcherbakov, Jiancang Zhuang, Gert Zöller, Yosihiko Ogata
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2019-09-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-11958-4