Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study
Summary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2020-09-01
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| Series: | The Lancet Global Health |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X20302886 |
| _version_ | 1818521856787873792 |
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| author | Alexandra B Hogan, PhD Britta L Jewell, PhD Ellie Sherrard-Smith, PhD Juan F Vesga, PhD Oliver J Watson, PhD Charles Whittaker, MSc Arran Hamlet, PhD Jennifer A Smith, DPhil Peter Winskill, PhD Robert Verity, PhD Marc Baguelin, PhD John A Lees, PhD Lilith K Whittles, PhD Kylie E C Ainslie, PhD Samir Bhatt, DPhil Adhiratha Boonyasiri, MD Nicholas F Brazeau, PhD Lorenzo Cattarino, PhD Laura V Cooper, MPhil Helen Coupland, MRes Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, MMath Amy Dighe, MRes Bimandra A Djaafara, MRes Christl A Donnelly, ProfScD Jeff W Eaton, PhD Sabine L van Elsland, PhD Richard G FitzJohn, PhD Han Fu, PhD Katy A M Gaythorpe, PhD William Green, MRes David J Haw, PhD Sarah Hayes, MSc Wes Hinsley, PhD Natsuko Imai, PhD Daniel J Laydon, PhD Tara D Mangal, PhD Thomas A Mellan, PhD Swapnil Mishra, PhD Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, PhD Kris V Parag, PhD Hayley A Thompson, MPH H Juliette T Unwin, PhD Michaela A C Vollmer, PhD Caroline E Walters, PhD Haowei Wang, MSc Yuanrong Wang Xiaoyue Xi, MSc Neil M Ferguson, ProfDPhil Lucy C Okell, PhD Thomas S Churcher, PhD Nimalan Arinaminpathy, DPhil Azra C Ghani, ProfPhD Patrick G T Walker, PhD Timothy B Hallett, ProfPhD |
| author_facet | Alexandra B Hogan, PhD Britta L Jewell, PhD Ellie Sherrard-Smith, PhD Juan F Vesga, PhD Oliver J Watson, PhD Charles Whittaker, MSc Arran Hamlet, PhD Jennifer A Smith, DPhil Peter Winskill, PhD Robert Verity, PhD Marc Baguelin, PhD John A Lees, PhD Lilith K Whittles, PhD Kylie E C Ainslie, PhD Samir Bhatt, DPhil Adhiratha Boonyasiri, MD Nicholas F Brazeau, PhD Lorenzo Cattarino, PhD Laura V Cooper, MPhil Helen Coupland, MRes Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, MMath Amy Dighe, MRes Bimandra A Djaafara, MRes Christl A Donnelly, ProfScD Jeff W Eaton, PhD Sabine L van Elsland, PhD Richard G FitzJohn, PhD Han Fu, PhD Katy A M Gaythorpe, PhD William Green, MRes David J Haw, PhD Sarah Hayes, MSc Wes Hinsley, PhD Natsuko Imai, PhD Daniel J Laydon, PhD Tara D Mangal, PhD Thomas A Mellan, PhD Swapnil Mishra, PhD Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, PhD Kris V Parag, PhD Hayley A Thompson, MPH H Juliette T Unwin, PhD Michaela A C Vollmer, PhD Caroline E Walters, PhD Haowei Wang, MSc Yuanrong Wang Xiaoyue Xi, MSc Neil M Ferguson, ProfDPhil Lucy C Okell, PhD Thomas S Churcher, PhD Nimalan Arinaminpathy, DPhil Azra C Ghani, ProfPhD Patrick G T Walker, PhD Timothy B Hallett, ProfPhD |
| author_sort | Alexandra B Hogan, PhD |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:56:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c3f23ef3c1124c1993c547ea5ad1e2a8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-109X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-11T01:56:56Z |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Lancet Global Health |
| spelling | doaj.art-c3f23ef3c1124c1993c547ea5ad1e2a82022-12-22T01:24:36ZengElsevierThe Lancet Global Health2214-109X2020-09-0189e1132e1141Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling studyAlexandra B Hogan, PhD0Britta L Jewell, PhD1Ellie Sherrard-Smith, PhD2Juan F Vesga, PhD3Oliver J Watson, PhD4Charles Whittaker, MSc5Arran Hamlet, PhD6Jennifer A Smith, DPhil7Peter Winskill, PhD8Robert Verity, PhD9Marc Baguelin, PhD10John A Lees, PhD11Lilith K Whittles, PhD12Kylie E C Ainslie, PhD13Samir Bhatt, DPhil14Adhiratha Boonyasiri, MD15Nicholas F Brazeau, PhD16Lorenzo Cattarino, PhD17Laura V Cooper, MPhil18Helen Coupland, MRes19Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, MMath20Amy Dighe, MRes21Bimandra A Djaafara, MRes22Christl A Donnelly, ProfScD23Jeff W Eaton, PhD24Sabine L van Elsland, PhD25Richard G FitzJohn, PhD26Han Fu, PhD27Katy A M Gaythorpe, PhD28William Green, MRes29David J Haw, PhD30Sarah Hayes, MSc31Wes Hinsley, PhD32Natsuko Imai, PhD33Daniel J Laydon, PhD34Tara D Mangal, PhD35Thomas A Mellan, PhD36Swapnil Mishra, PhD37Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, PhD38Kris V Parag, PhD39Hayley A Thompson, MPH40H Juliette T Unwin, PhD41Michaela A C Vollmer, PhD42Caroline E Walters, PhD43Haowei Wang, MSc44Yuanrong Wang45Xiaoyue Xi, MSc46Neil M Ferguson, ProfDPhil47Lucy C Okell, PhD48Thomas S Churcher, PhD49Nimalan Arinaminpathy, DPhil50Azra C Ghani, ProfPhD51Patrick G T Walker, PhD52Timothy B Hallett, ProfPhD53Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UKMedical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London, UK; Correspondence to: Prof Timothy B Hallett, Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, UKSummary: Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years. Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year. We used established transmission models of HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria to estimate the additional impact on health that could be caused in selected settings, either due to COVID-19 interventions limiting activities, or due to the high demand on the health system due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: In high-burden settings, deaths due to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria over 5 years could increase by up to 10%, 20%, and 36%, respectively, compared with if there was no COVID-19 pandemic. The greatest impact on HIV was estimated to be from interruption to antiretroviral therapy, which could occur during a period of high health system demand. For tuberculosis, the greatest impact would be from reductions in timely diagnosis and treatment of new cases, which could result from any prolonged period of COVID-19 suppression interventions. The greatest impact on malaria burden could be as a result of interruption of planned net campaigns. These disruptions could lead to a loss of life-years over 5 years that is of the same order of magnitude as the direct impact from COVID-19 in places with a high burden of malaria and large HIV and tuberculosis epidemics. Interpretation: Maintaining the most critical prevention activities and health-care services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria could substantially reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development, and Medical Research Council.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X20302886 |
| spellingShingle | Alexandra B Hogan, PhD Britta L Jewell, PhD Ellie Sherrard-Smith, PhD Juan F Vesga, PhD Oliver J Watson, PhD Charles Whittaker, MSc Arran Hamlet, PhD Jennifer A Smith, DPhil Peter Winskill, PhD Robert Verity, PhD Marc Baguelin, PhD John A Lees, PhD Lilith K Whittles, PhD Kylie E C Ainslie, PhD Samir Bhatt, DPhil Adhiratha Boonyasiri, MD Nicholas F Brazeau, PhD Lorenzo Cattarino, PhD Laura V Cooper, MPhil Helen Coupland, MRes Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, MMath Amy Dighe, MRes Bimandra A Djaafara, MRes Christl A Donnelly, ProfScD Jeff W Eaton, PhD Sabine L van Elsland, PhD Richard G FitzJohn, PhD Han Fu, PhD Katy A M Gaythorpe, PhD William Green, MRes David J Haw, PhD Sarah Hayes, MSc Wes Hinsley, PhD Natsuko Imai, PhD Daniel J Laydon, PhD Tara D Mangal, PhD Thomas A Mellan, PhD Swapnil Mishra, PhD Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, PhD Kris V Parag, PhD Hayley A Thompson, MPH H Juliette T Unwin, PhD Michaela A C Vollmer, PhD Caroline E Walters, PhD Haowei Wang, MSc Yuanrong Wang Xiaoyue Xi, MSc Neil M Ferguson, ProfDPhil Lucy C Okell, PhD Thomas S Churcher, PhD Nimalan Arinaminpathy, DPhil Azra C Ghani, ProfPhD Patrick G T Walker, PhD Timothy B Hallett, ProfPhD Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study The Lancet Global Health |
| title | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
| title_full | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
| title_short | Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study |
| title_sort | potential impact of the covid 19 pandemic on hiv tuberculosis and malaria in low income and middle income countries a modelling study |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214109X20302886 |
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