Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany
Abstract Background Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and mottled umber moth (Erannis defoliaria) are forest Lepidoptera species characterized by periodic high abundance in a 7–11 year cycle. During outbreak years they cause severe defoliation in many forest stands in Europe. In order to better unde...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Forest Ecosystems |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-019-0162-6 |
| _version_ | 1797968306940936192 |
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| author | Anika Hittenbeck Ronald Bialozyt Matthias Schmidt |
| author_facet | Anika Hittenbeck Ronald Bialozyt Matthias Schmidt |
| author_sort | Anika Hittenbeck |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and mottled umber moth (Erannis defoliaria) are forest Lepidoptera species characterized by periodic high abundance in a 7–11 year cycle. During outbreak years they cause severe defoliation in many forest stands in Europe. In order to better understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and elucidate possible influences of weather, stand and site conditions, a generalized additive mixed model was developed. The investigated data base was derived from glue band catch monitoring stands of both species in Central and North Germany. From the glue bands only female moth individuals are counted and a hazard code is calculated. The model can be employed to predict the exceedance of a warning threshold of this hazard code which indicates a potential severe defoliation of oak stands by winter moth and mottled umber in the coming spring. Results The developed model accounts for specific temporal structured effects for three large ecoregions and random effects at stand level. During variable selection the negative model effect of pest control and the positive model effects of mean daily minimum temperature in adult stage and precipitation in early pupal stage were identified. Conclusion The developed model can be used for short-term predictions of potential defoliation risk in Central and North Germany. These predictions are sensitive to weather conditions and the population dynamics. However, a future extension of the data base comprising further outbreak years would allow for deeper investigation of the temporal and regional patterns of the cyclic dynamics and their causal influences on abundance of winter moth and mottled umber. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:43:44Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ceb2e0b1246543389d83ef4fb9ee6755 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2197-5620 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:43:44Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forest Ecosystems |
| spelling | doaj.art-ceb2e0b1246543389d83ef4fb9ee67552023-01-02T18:29:13ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Forest Ecosystems2197-56202019-01-016111810.1186/s40663-019-0162-6Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern GermanyAnika Hittenbeck0Ronald Bialozyt1Matthias Schmidt2Northwest German Forest Research InstituteNorthwest German Forest Research InstituteNorthwest German Forest Research InstituteAbstract Background Winter moth (Operophtera brumata) and mottled umber moth (Erannis defoliaria) are forest Lepidoptera species characterized by periodic high abundance in a 7–11 year cycle. During outbreak years they cause severe defoliation in many forest stands in Europe. In order to better understand the spatio-temporal dynamics and elucidate possible influences of weather, stand and site conditions, a generalized additive mixed model was developed. The investigated data base was derived from glue band catch monitoring stands of both species in Central and North Germany. From the glue bands only female moth individuals are counted and a hazard code is calculated. The model can be employed to predict the exceedance of a warning threshold of this hazard code which indicates a potential severe defoliation of oak stands by winter moth and mottled umber in the coming spring. Results The developed model accounts for specific temporal structured effects for three large ecoregions and random effects at stand level. During variable selection the negative model effect of pest control and the positive model effects of mean daily minimum temperature in adult stage and precipitation in early pupal stage were identified. Conclusion The developed model can be used for short-term predictions of potential defoliation risk in Central and North Germany. These predictions are sensitive to weather conditions and the population dynamics. However, a future extension of the data base comprising further outbreak years would allow for deeper investigation of the temporal and regional patterns of the cyclic dynamics and their causal influences on abundance of winter moth and mottled umber.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-019-0162-6Operophtera brumataErannis defoliariaGeneralized additive mixed modelWeather effectInsect pest outbreaks |
| spellingShingle | Anika Hittenbeck Ronald Bialozyt Matthias Schmidt Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany Forest Ecosystems Operophtera brumata Erannis defoliaria Generalized additive mixed model Weather effect Insect pest outbreaks |
| title | Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany |
| title_full | Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany |
| title_short | Modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern Germany |
| title_sort | modelling the population fluctuation of winter moth and mottled umber moth in central and northern germany |
| topic | Operophtera brumata Erannis defoliaria Generalized additive mixed model Weather effect Insect pest outbreaks |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s40663-019-0162-6 |
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