SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return
In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2021-08-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210310 |
| _version_ | 1818331517236019200 |
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| author | Jessica Enright Edward M. Hill Helena B. Stage Kirsty J. Bolton Emily J. Nixon Emma L. Fairbanks Maria L. Tang Ellen Brooks-Pollock Louise Dyson Chris J. Budd Rebecca B. Hoyle Lars Schewe Julia R. Gog Michael J. Tildesley |
| author_facet | Jessica Enright Edward M. Hill Helena B. Stage Kirsty J. Bolton Emily J. Nixon Emma L. Fairbanks Maria L. Tang Ellen Brooks-Pollock Louise Dyson Chris J. Budd Rebecca B. Hoyle Lars Schewe Julia R. Gog Michael J. Tildesley |
| author_sort | Jessica Enright |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:21:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-d6a7266b02904981bfa8d6abca464235 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T13:21:06Z |
| publishDate | 2021-08-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-d6a7266b02904981bfa8d6abca4642352022-12-21T23:44:25ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032021-08-018810.1098/rsos.210310SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student returnJessica Enright0Edward M. Hill1Helena B. Stage2Kirsty J. Bolton3Emily J. Nixon4Emma L. Fairbanks5Maria L. Tang6Ellen Brooks-Pollock7Louise Dyson8Chris J. Budd9Rebecca B. Hoyle10Lars Schewe11Julia R. Gog12Michael J. Tildesley13School of Computing Science, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UKJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UKCentre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UKJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UKCentre for Mathematical Medicine and Biology, School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham, UKSchool of Veterinary Medicine and Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough, UKJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UKSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath, UKSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKUniversity of Edinburgh, School of Mathematics, James Clerk Maxwell Building, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, UKJoint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research, UKThe Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, School of Life Sciences and Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UKIn this paper, we present work on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in UK higher education settings using multiple approaches to assess the extent of university outbreaks, how much those outbreaks may have led to spillover in the community, and the expected effects of control measures. Firstly, we found that the distribution of outbreaks in universities in late 2020 was consistent with the expected importation of infection from arriving students. Considering outbreaks at one university, larger halls of residence posed higher risks for transmission. The dynamics of transmission from university outbreaks to wider communities is complex, and while sometimes spillover does occur, occasionally even large outbreaks do not give any detectable signal of spillover to the local population. Secondly, we explored proposed control measures for reopening and keeping open universities. We found the proposal of staggering the return of students to university residence is of limited value in terms of reducing transmission. We show that student adherence to testing and self-isolation is likely to be much more important for reducing transmission during term time. Finally, we explored strategies for testing students in the context of a more transmissible variant and found that frequent testing would be necessary to prevent a major outbreak.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210310epidemic modellingpandemic modellingCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2higher education |
| spellingShingle | Jessica Enright Edward M. Hill Helena B. Stage Kirsty J. Bolton Emily J. Nixon Emma L. Fairbanks Maria L. Tang Ellen Brooks-Pollock Louise Dyson Chris J. Budd Rebecca B. Hoyle Lars Schewe Julia R. Gog Michael J. Tildesley SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return Royal Society Open Science epidemic modelling pandemic modelling COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 higher education |
| title | SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| title_full | SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| title_fullStr | SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| title_full_unstemmed | SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| title_short | SARS-CoV-2 infection in UK university students: lessons from September–December 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| title_sort | sars cov 2 infection in uk university students lessons from september december 2020 and modelling insights for future student return |
| topic | epidemic modelling pandemic modelling COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 higher education |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.210310 |
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