Base rate neglect and conservatism in probabilistic reasoning: Insights from eliciting full distributions
Bayesian statistics offers a normative description for how a person should combine their original beliefs (i.e., their priors) in light of new evidence (i.e., the likelihood). Previous research suggests that people tend to under-weight both their prior (base rate neglect) and the likelihood (conserv...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.sjdm.org/21/210928/jdm210928.pdf |