An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory

An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory

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This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides evaluations of forecasters’ expertise in relation to the features of the specific questions they answer. We illustrate the model using geopolitical forecasts obtained by the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Yuanchao Emily Bo, David V. Budescu, Charles Lewis, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Cambridge University Press 2017-03-01
Series:Judgment and Decision Making
Subjects:
IRT
Forecasting
Brier scores
Proper Scoring Rules
Good Judgment Project
Gibbs sampling.NAKeywords
Online Access:http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16218/jdm16218.pdf

Internet

http://journal.sjdm.org/16/16218/jdm16218.pdf

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