Using a Dynamic Causal Model to validate previous predictions and offer a 12-month forecast of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK

Using a Dynamic Causal Model to validate previous predictions and offer a 12-month forecast of the long-term effects of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK

BackgroundPredicting the future UK COVID-19 epidemic provides a baseline of a vaccine-only mitigation policy from which to judge the effects of additional public health interventions. A previous 12-month prediction of the size of the epidemic to October 2022 underestimated its sequelae by a fifth. T...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Cam Bowie, Karl Friston
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Frontiers Media S.A. 2023-01-01
Series:Frontiers in Public Health
Subjects:
Dynamic Causal Model
COVID-19 mitigation measures
acute-post-COVID-19
hospital admissions
mortality incidence
Online Access:https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1108886/full

Internet

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2022.1108886/full

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