Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Abstract A hierarchical space–time version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (HIST–ETAS) model was constructed for an optimally adapted fit to diverse seismicity features characterized by anisotropic clustering as well as regionally distinct parameters. This manuscript validates this elaborat...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Yosihiko Ogata
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2022-07-01
Series:Earth, Planets and Space
Subjects:
Bayesian method
Cross-validation
HIST–ETAS
Location-dependent parameters
Maximum a posteriori (MAP)
Space–time log-likelihood score
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01669-4

Internet

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01669-4

Similar Items