Predictive verification for the design of partially exchangeable multi-model ensembles

The performance of an ensemble forecast, as measured by scoring rules, depends on its number of members. Under the assumption of ensemble member exchangeability, ensemble-adjusted scores provide unbiased estimates of the ensemble-size effect. In this study, the concept of ensemble-adjusted scores is...

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Bibliografiska uppgifter
Huvudupphovsmän: Zied Ben Bouallégue, Christopher A. T. Ferro, Martin Leutbecher, David S. Richardson
Materialtyp: Artikel
Språk:English
Publicerad: Stockholm University Press 2020-01-01
Serie:Tellus: Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Ämnen:
Länkar:http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1697165