The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA
Insects, fungi, and diseases play an important role in forest stand development and subsequently, forest management decisions and treatments. As these disturbance agents commonly occur within and across landscapes, modeling has often been used to inform forest planning and management decisions. Howe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Forests |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/7/843 |
| _version_ | 1797528704858980352 |
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| author | Ella R. Gray Matthew B. Russell Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione |
| author_facet | Ella R. Gray Matthew B. Russell Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione |
| author_sort | Ella R. Gray |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Insects, fungi, and diseases play an important role in forest stand development and subsequently, forest management decisions and treatments. As these disturbance agents commonly occur within and across landscapes, modeling has often been used to inform forest planning and management decisions. However, models are rarely benchmarked, leaving questions about their utility. Here, we assessed the predictive performance of a Bayesian hierarchical model through on–the-ground sampling to explore what features of stand structure or composition may be important factors related to eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (<i>Arceuthobium pusillum</i> Peck) presence in lowland black spruce (<i>Picea mariana</i> (Mill.) B. S. P.). Twenty-five state-owned stands included in the predictive model were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. Within each stand, data related to the presence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe, stand structure, and species composition were collected. The model accurately predicted eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe occurrence for 13 of the 25 stands. The amount of living and dead black spruce basal area differed significantly based on model prediction and observed infestation, but trees per hectare, total living basal area, diameter at breast height, stand age, and species richness were not significantly different. Our results highlight the benefits of model benchmarking to improve model interpretation as well as to inform our understanding of forest health problems across diverse stand conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:02:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-f3fa99486ac04b3ea1299e0a8969e554 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1999-4907 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T10:02:09Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forests |
| spelling | doaj.art-f3fa99486ac04b3ea1299e0a8969e5542023-11-22T01:52:05ZengMDPI AGForests1999-49072021-06-0112784310.3390/f12070843The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USAElla R. Gray0Matthew B. Russell1Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione2Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USADepartment of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USADepartment of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USAInsects, fungi, and diseases play an important role in forest stand development and subsequently, forest management decisions and treatments. As these disturbance agents commonly occur within and across landscapes, modeling has often been used to inform forest planning and management decisions. However, models are rarely benchmarked, leaving questions about their utility. Here, we assessed the predictive performance of a Bayesian hierarchical model through on–the-ground sampling to explore what features of stand structure or composition may be important factors related to eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (<i>Arceuthobium pusillum</i> Peck) presence in lowland black spruce (<i>Picea mariana</i> (Mill.) B. S. P.). Twenty-five state-owned stands included in the predictive model were sampled during the 2019 and 2020 growing seasons. Within each stand, data related to the presence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe, stand structure, and species composition were collected. The model accurately predicted eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe occurrence for 13 of the 25 stands. The amount of living and dead black spruce basal area differed significantly based on model prediction and observed infestation, but trees per hectare, total living basal area, diameter at breast height, stand age, and species richness were not significantly different. Our results highlight the benefits of model benchmarking to improve model interpretation as well as to inform our understanding of forest health problems across diverse stand conditions.https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/7/843forest healthlowland conifersboreal forest<i>Arceuthobium</i>black spruceeastern spruce dwarf mistletoe |
| spellingShingle | Ella R. Gray Matthew B. Russell Marcella A. Windmuller-Campione The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA Forests forest health lowland conifers boreal forest <i>Arceuthobium</i> black spruce eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe |
| title | The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA |
| title_full | The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA |
| title_fullStr | The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA |
| title_short | The Difficulty of Predicting Eastern Spruce Dwarf Mistletoe in Lowland Black Spruce: Model Benchmarking in Northern Minnesota, USA |
| title_sort | difficulty of predicting eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe in lowland black spruce model benchmarking in northern minnesota usa |
| topic | forest health lowland conifers boreal forest <i>Arceuthobium</i> black spruce eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4907/12/7/843 |
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