Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.

If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. Howe...

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Main Authors: Frédéric M Hamelin, Linda J S Allen, Vrushali A Bokil, Louis J Gross, Frank M Hilker, Michael J Jeger, Carrie A Manore, Alison G Power, Megan A Rúa, Nik J Cunniffe
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science (PLoS) 2019-12-01
Series:PLoS Biology
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000551
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author Frédéric M Hamelin
Linda J S Allen
Vrushali A Bokil
Louis J Gross
Frank M Hilker
Michael J Jeger
Carrie A Manore
Alison G Power
Megan A Rúa
Nik J Cunniffe
author_facet Frédéric M Hamelin
Linda J S Allen
Vrushali A Bokil
Louis J Gross
Frank M Hilker
Michael J Jeger
Carrie A Manore
Alison G Power
Megan A Rúa
Nik J Cunniffe
author_sort Frédéric M Hamelin
collection DOAJ
description If pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, the very simplest of epidemiological models challenge the underlying assumption of statistical independence. Even if pathogens do not interact, death of coinfected hosts causes net prevalences of individual pathogens to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between prevalences means the proportion of coinfected hosts is expected to be higher than multiplication would suggest. By modelling the dynamics of multiple noninteracting pathogens causing chronic infections, we develop a pair of novel tests of interaction that properly account for nonindependence between pathogens causing lifelong infection. Our tests allow us to reinterpret data from previous studies including pathogens of humans, plants, and animals. Our work demonstrates how methods to identify interactions between pathogens can be updated using simple epidemic models.
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spelling doaj.art-fe57a5415fc743ea9aac7e26fd1e38be2022-12-21T17:17:44ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Biology1544-91731545-78852019-12-011712e300055110.1371/journal.pbio.3000551Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.Frédéric M HamelinLinda J S AllenVrushali A BokilLouis J GrossFrank M HilkerMichael J JegerCarrie A ManoreAlison G PowerMegan A RúaNik J CunniffeIf pathogen species, strains, or clones do not interact, intuition suggests the proportion of coinfected hosts should be the product of the individual prevalences. Independence consequently underpins the wide range of methods for detecting pathogen interactions from cross-sectional survey data. However, the very simplest of epidemiological models challenge the underlying assumption of statistical independence. Even if pathogens do not interact, death of coinfected hosts causes net prevalences of individual pathogens to decrease simultaneously. The induced positive correlation between prevalences means the proportion of coinfected hosts is expected to be higher than multiplication would suggest. By modelling the dynamics of multiple noninteracting pathogens causing chronic infections, we develop a pair of novel tests of interaction that properly account for nonindependence between pathogens causing lifelong infection. Our tests allow us to reinterpret data from previous studies including pathogens of humans, plants, and animals. Our work demonstrates how methods to identify interactions between pathogens can be updated using simple epidemic models.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000551
spellingShingle Frédéric M Hamelin
Linda J S Allen
Vrushali A Bokil
Louis J Gross
Frank M Hilker
Michael J Jeger
Carrie A Manore
Alison G Power
Megan A Rúa
Nik J Cunniffe
Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
PLoS Biology
title Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
title_full Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
title_fullStr Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
title_full_unstemmed Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
title_short Coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction.
title_sort coinfections by noninteracting pathogens are not independent and require new tests of interaction
url https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3000551
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