Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability
This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Article |
| Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2018
|
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117019 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| _version_ | 1811074215428751360 |
|---|---|
| author | Li, Jingyuan Thompson, David W. J. Barnes, Elizabeth A. Solomon, Susan |
| author2 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
| author_facet | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Li, Jingyuan Thompson, David W. J. Barnes, Elizabeth A. Solomon, Susan |
| author_sort | Li, Jingyuan |
| collection | MIT |
| description | This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate change simulations. It is shown to provide a robust estimate of the point in time when the forced signal of climate change has emerged from the natural variability of the climate system with a predetermined level of statistical confidence. The expression provides a novel analytic tool for estimating the time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change and its associated regional climate impacts from either observed or modeled estimates of natural variability and trends. |
| first_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:45:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | mit-1721.1/117019 |
| institution | Massachusetts Institute of Technology |
| last_indexed | 2024-09-23T09:45:29Z |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | mit-1721.1/1170192022-09-30T16:39:53Z Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability Li, Jingyuan Thompson, David W. J. Barnes, Elizabeth A. Solomon, Susan Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Solomon, Susan This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate change simulations. It is shown to provide a robust estimate of the point in time when the forced signal of climate change has emerged from the natural variability of the climate system with a predetermined level of statistical confidence. The expression provides a novel analytic tool for estimating the time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change and its associated regional climate impacts from either observed or modeled estimates of natural variability and trends. National Science Foundation (U.S.). Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program (Grant AGS-1419667) 2018-07-20T13:57:12Z 2018-07-20T13:57:12Z 2017-10 2017-04 2018-07-18T18:04:10Z Article http://purl.org/eprint/type/JournalArticle 0894-8755 1520-0442 http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117019 Li, Jingyuan, et al. “Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability.” Journal of Climate, vol. 30, no. 24, Dec. 2017, pp. 10179–91. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0280.1 Journal of Climate Article is made available in accordance with the publisher's policy and may be subject to US copyright law. Please refer to the publisher's site for terms of use. application/pdf American Meteorological Society American Meteorological Society |
| spellingShingle | Li, Jingyuan Thompson, David W. J. Barnes, Elizabeth A. Solomon, Susan Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title | Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title_full | Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title_short | Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability |
| title_sort | quantifying the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge from natural climate variability |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117019 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lijingyuan quantifyingtheleadtimerequiredforalineartrendtoemergefromnaturalclimatevariability AT thompsondavidwj quantifyingtheleadtimerequiredforalineartrendtoemergefromnaturalclimatevariability AT barneselizabetha quantifyingtheleadtimerequiredforalineartrendtoemergefromnaturalclimatevariability AT solomonsusan quantifyingtheleadtimerequiredforalineartrendtoemergefromnaturalclimatevariability |