Quantifying the Lead Time Required for a Linear Trend to Emerge from Natural Climate Variability
This study introduces a simple analytic expression for calculating the lead time required for a linear trend to emerge in a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process. The expression is derived from the standard error of the regression and is tested using the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large...
Main Authors: | Li, Jingyuan, Thompson, David W. J., Barnes, Elizabeth A., Solomon, Susan |
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Other Authors: | Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences |
Format: | Article |
Published: |
American Meteorological Society
2018
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/117019 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2020-7581 |
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