Leaning in Real Time: Theory and empircal Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts.
We develop an econometric framework for understanding how agents form expectations about economic variables with a partially predictable component. Our model incorporates the effect of measurement errors and heterogeneity in individual forecasters’ prior beliefs and their information signals and als...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working paper |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance
2008
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