Forecasting breaks and forecasting during breaks

Success in accurately forecasting breaks requires that they are predictable from relevant information available at the forecast origin using an appropriate model form, which can be selected and estimated before the break. To clarify the roles of these six necessary conditions, we distinguish betwee...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Castle, J, Hendry, D, Fawcett, N
Format: Working paper
Published: University of Oxford 2011