Forecast Failure, Expectations Formation and the Lucas Critique.
Since forecast failure is due to unanticipated deterministic shifts, "sensible" agents should adopt "robust forecasting rules". In such a non-stationary world, causal variables can dominate non-causal in forecasting, so "rational expectations" do not have a sound basis:...
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| Format: | Journal article |
| Language: | English |
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L'INSEE/GENES on behalf of ADRES
2002
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