Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data

A key challenge for public health policy makers is determining when an infectious disease outbreak has finished. Following a period without cases, an estimate of the probability that no further cases will occur in future (the end-of-outbreak probability) can be used to inform whether or not to decla...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Bradbury, NV, Hart, WS, Lovell-Read, FA, Polonsky, JA, Thompson, RN
Format: Journal article
Language:English
Published: Royal Society 2023