How good are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?

How good are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?

This paper compares annual one-year-ahead and five-year-ahead forecasts from government agencies for the U.S. gross federal debt and deficit from 1984 to 2013. Other studies have compared two of these agencies' forecasts, but not for debt. The current paper finds that the forecast from the An...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Author:	Martinez, A
Format:	Working paper
Published:	University of Oxford 2014

Similar Items

The role of the U.S. Federal Government in the student loan industry
by: Mungovan, Patrick M. (Patrick Mullahy)
Published: (2006)

Not Helpful To Compare Federal Debt With Household Debt
by: Zainal Abidin, Irwan Shah
Published: (2023)

Taking the Long Way Home: U.S. Tax Evasion and Offshore Investments in U.S. Equity and Debt Markets
by: Hanlon, Michelle, et al.
Published: (2015)

Map 2: U.S. Precipitation Forecast
Published: (2005)

Map 5: U.S. Tonight's Forecast
Published: (2005)

Map 3: U.S. Forecast Winds
Published: (2005)

U.S. response to an Oil Import Disruption Role of the Federal Government in Light Duty Vehicle Transportation
by: Frazier, Kyle, et al.
Published: (2016)

A study on financing choice among convertible, debt and equity in U.S..
by: Chua, Li Leen., et al.
Published: (2008)

Nearest-neighbor forecast of U.S. interest rates
by: Barkoulas, John, et al.
Published: (2003)

How the U.S. buys research.
by: Roberts, Edward Baer.
Published: (2009)

Influence and information in U.S. bureaucracy : how agencies, congress, and interest groups use federal advisory committees
by: Karty, Kevin Dean, 1973-
Published: (2005)

U.S Government scientific and technical periodicals/
by: Yannarella, Philip A.
Published: (1976)

U.S. governmental policies toward technology transfer by U.S. business to developing nations : should the U.S. government do more ?
by: Swannack-Nunn, Susan.
Published: (2009)

The U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and its implications for U.S.-ASEAN economic governance architecture
by: Pitakdumrongkit, Kaewkamol
Published: (2021)

The US public debt problem
by: Yeo, Teck Wei, et al.
Published: (2013)

Roles for government and other sectors in the governance of green infrastructure in the U.S.
by: Harrington, Elise, et al.
Published: (2020)

An econometric analysis of an institutional forecasting model for U.S. Army enlistments
by: Berner, J. Kevin (John Kevin)
Published: (2005)

Avian Influenza Pre-Pandemic Procurement: Recommendations for the US Federal Government
by: Bird, Sarah, et al.
Published: (2016)

Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon for Use in U.S. Federal Rulemakings: A Summary and interpretation
by: Greenstone, Michael, et al.
Published: (2012)

Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon for Use in U.S. Federal Rulemakings: A Summary and Interpretation
by: Greenstone, Michael, et al.
Published: (2011)

Promoting the Concept of Sustainable Transportation within the Federal System - The Need to Reinvent the U.S. DOT
by: Hall, Ralph P., et al.
Published: (2016)

Internal audit in the federal government organizations of Malaysia: The good, the bad and the very ugly?
by: Md Ali, Azham, et al.
Published: (2012)

Navigating treacherous waters : U.S. private real estate debt market opportunity and investment strategy under new debt capital market order
by: Li, Yunda
Published: (2017)

Swamped by debt U S trade with the NICs /
by: 258440 Sewell, John W., et al.

The uses of institutions : the U.S., Japan, and governance in East Asia /
by: Ikenberry, G.John, et al.
Published: (2007)

The US GDP Growth and Debt Sustainability
by: Alali, W Y, et al.
Published: (2022)

Commercial real estate debt security market in Japan : a comparative study with the U.S. CMBS market
by: Won, Young Keun, 1970-, et al.
Published: (2005)

Taliban: How it emerged and why U.S and Pakistan failed?
by: Keling, Mohamad Faisol, et al.

How the U.S. State Works: A Theory of Standardization
by: King, D, et al.
Published: (2011)

Point forecast markov switching model for U.S. Dollar/ Euro exchange rate
by: Hamidreza Mostafaei,, et al.
Published: (2012)

The U.S. commercial launch industry--government's role in technological development
by: Gold, David M. (David Mark)
Published: (2008)

The U.S. Government's automotive safety program : a preliminary examination
by: Rothberg, David L.
Published: (2005)

A better politics how government can make us happier: how government can make us happier
by: Dorling, D
Published: (2016)

Interpersonal arguing in Malaysia and how it compares to the U.S., India, and China
by: Waheed, Moniza
Published: (2019)

Turning the Hinge of Fate: Good Source and the UK-U.S. Intelligence Alliance, 1940-1942*
by: Jenner, J
Published: (2008)

Using U.S. Leverage to Abate Conflicts That Harm U.S. Security
by: Van Evera, Stephen W.
Published: (2012)

Corporate governance and merger activity in the U.S. : making sense of the 1980s and 1990s
by: Holmstrm, Bengt, et al.
Published: (2011)

Corporate governance and firm performance : a comparison between U.S. and SG.
by: Lim, Eugene Jia Hui., et al.
Published: (2011)

How good is an ensemble at capturing truth? Using bounding boxes for forecast evaluation
by: Judd, K, et al.
Published: (2007)

Persistence and cycles in the US federal funds rate
by: Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, et al.
Published: (2012)