On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes

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Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forec...

Полное описание

Библиографические подробности
Главные авторы:	Castle, J, Hendry, D
Формат:	Working paper
Опубликовано:	University of Oxford 2011

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