On not evaluating economic models by forecast outcomes
Even in scientific disciplines, forecast failures occur. Four possible states of nature (a model is good or bad, and it forecasts well or badly) are examined using a forecast-error taxonomy, which traces the many possible sources of forecast errors. This analysis shows that a valid model can forec...
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| Materyal Türü: | Working paper |
| Baskı/Yayın Bilgisi: |
University of Oxford
2011
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