Are epidemic growth rates more informative than reproduction numbers?

Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R<sub>t</sub>, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R<sub...

সম্পূর্ণ বিবরণ

গ্রন্থ-পঞ্জীর বিবরন
প্রধান লেখক: Parag, KV, Thompson, RN, Donnelly, CA
বিন্যাস: Journal article
ভাষা:English
প্রকাশিত: Wiley 2022
বিবরন
সংক্ষিপ্ত:Summary statistics, often derived from simplified models of epidemic spread, inform public health policy in real time. The instantaneous reproduction number, R<sub>t</sub>, is predominant among these statistics, measuring the average ability of an infection to multiply. However, R<sub>t</sub> encodes no temporal information and is sensitive to modelling assumptions. Consequently, some have proposed the epidemic growth rate, r<sub>t</sub>, that is, the rate of change of the log-transformed case incidence, as a more temporally meaningful and model-agnostic policy guide. We examine this assertion, identifying if and when estimates of r<sub>t</sub> are more informative than those of R<sub>t</sub>. We assess their relative strengths both for learning about pathogen transmission mechanisms and for guiding public health interventions in real time.